Ignore September91影视檚 SMMT data: what matters is how quickly the sector bounces back
Commenting on the , Emily Sawicz, Director and聽Industrials Senior Analyst at 91影视, said: 91影视淭he 27.1% car production plummet in September is almost all attributable to the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) cyber-attack, which paralysed its production for several weeks, so in many ways we can ignore the data.
91影视淎s JLR recovers from that incident and starts to ramp production back up again, the big question is how much vehicle manufacturing bounces back over the next couple of months.
91影视淲ith European manufacturers running at on average 55% capacity, there91影视檚 plenty of scope for growth but no real incentive for manufacturers to increase production: there91影视檚 still huge uncertainty and risk from tariffs, and consumer demand looks fragile and unpredictable.
91影视淎longside this, and worryingly for UK and European firms, Chinese manufacturers, such as BYD, MG and Xpeng are building market share and we expect that, with the USA withdrawing its federal tax credits for EVs on 30th September, even more of these vehicles will flood into the European market.
91影视淚n the UK it91影视檚 widely predicted that the Chancellor will re-instate the 5p reduction in Fuel Duty in November91影视檚 Budget, which would give a further boost for UK EV sales, alongside the new EV subsidy.
91影视淟ooking ahead, forecasts for 2026 suggest a rebound of 4.4% in UK output, ahead of the EU91影视檚 2.7%. With the right policy support and investment, the UK remains well positioned to take advantage of this growth opportunity and lead from the front; but 2025 will continue to be a year of adjustment rather than acceleration.91影视